Intelligence Analyst

Strategic Research and Analysis • 2nd December 2024

Periscope 2025: Annual Security Forecast

SRA expects continued volatility in 2025, as the world confronts ongoing and new security challenges amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty. This report provides insight and context to help navigate potential obstacles in the coming year.

Confidential • 15th October 2024

Voter Intimidation and the US Elections

Voter intimidation is a major concern, particularly among voters in swing states or areas with a history of disputed election results. States like AZ, FL, GA, MI, NV, NH, NC, PA, TX, and WI, potentially face a high risk of disruption based on past elections.

Confidential • 19th July 2024

IS-K Primer Report

In 2016, the US State Department designated the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (IS-K) a foreign terrorist organization. In addition, the Global Terrorism Index (2019) listed IS-K as one of the world’s deadliest groups within three years of its founding in 2015.

Confidential • 19th July 2024

2024 US Elections Monthly Report

SRA will prepare a monthly report on security incidents leading to the 2024 US elections. This report will focus on events, protests, regional incidents, and critical dates. The report will switch to a biweekly format from September through November to acknowledge the increasingly complex domestic threat environment.

Confidential • 2nd May 2024

South African Political Parties

South Africa (SA) will hold national and provincial elections on May 29, 2024. The election outcome could signal a turning point in South African politics, as the ruling ANC Party is not expected to secure the majority vote, potentially leading to political partnerships and power-sharing.

Confidential • 1st May 2024

2024 South Africa Elections

South Africa will hold national and provincial elections on May 29; the African National Congress (ANC) Party will likely secure more votes than other political parties (GSI Guide) but is unlikely to retain its parliamentary majority for the first time since 1994. Securing less than a majority would open up the prospect of coalition rule.

Confidential • 10th April 2024

Water shortages in Barcelona, Bengaluru, Cape Town, and Mexico City

Multiple cities worldwide are experiencing water shortages, with an impact on Airbnb offices, in-country employees, Nomad workers, and leisure travelers. Shortages are likely to intensify over time due to a combination of factors, including population growth and climate change.

Confidential • 1st January 2024

Periscope 2024: Annual Security Forecast

Periscope is the Global Security Intelligence (GSI) annual forecast of emerging geopolitical risks.

Airbnb • 22nd June 2023

Winter Power Cuts in RSA

During July and August, Airbnb employees in South Africa are likely to experience more frequent power outages for longer periods of time as the country's electrical grid struggles to meet demand.

Airbnb • 15th June 2023

The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts near-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic in 2023. NOAA predicts the possibility of one to four major Category 3 or higher hurricanes

Confidential • 21st November 2022

Load-shedding in RSA

South Africa faces an energy supply crisis and the rising threat of more extreme load-shedding, or rolling power outages, will continue to impact Airbnb staff and remote workers.

Airbnb • 27th September 2022

Seasonal Flu Update

Countries in the Northern Hemisphere are likely to experience an increase in seasonal flu activity between December 2022 and February 2023 after two years of mild cases.

Airbnb • 20th July 2022

Electoral-related Violence in Kenya

Electoral-related violence is likely to occur in the days before and after Kenya’s presidential election on August 9. Despite heightened ethnic tension, tourists are at low risk of being targeted.

Airbnb • 12th January 2022

Congruent Influenza and COVID-19

During the 2020-2021 flu season, pandemic containment measures mitigated the combined threat of seasonal flu and COVID-19. Major transmission routes for the flu, such as public schools and business offices, remained closed, and regulations restricted restaurant and retail capacities.